WILL DICTATORS GET WHAT THEY WANT?

The answer is “may be” according to previous scenarios in Burma.

The situation in Burma is like moving towards somewhere good or bad. Everyone keeps their eye on the situation to observe what will happen next. Some say it is positive development and some say it is fake transformation. Perhaps it is dictators’ old strategy to break up oppositions’ movements where as it is about to be stronger.

Learning development on following circumstances will clearly indicate truthful situation in Burma.

(1) The situation before and after October 2010 elections

SPDC- State Peace and Development Council led by Than Shwe was the inheritor after SLORC and BSPP. Looking back at the beginning of how dictator Than Shwe seized the power from previous ruler, the closet objectives of tyrant could be spelled out generally. Actually the direction of political situation were aborted where as Burma was about to start appropriate outlook just after 1990 elections.

The head of previous ruler Saw Maung was removed from position with conspiratorial allegations in order to replace with Than Shwe. The main objective here is not to transfer the power to winning party NLD in 1990 elections. This is because Saw Maung said that the junta would transfer power to those who won with majority in the elections.

In January 1993 the regime started so called national convention, most of whose representatives were hand-picked by the regime. With the aim of drafting constitution, the convention was the main background to refuse 1990 election results.

Than shwe created his own hooligan squad called the Union Solidarity and Development Association and Swan Ah Shin (Master of forces) to brazen out people to people attack to replace shooting down innocent demonstrators by the troops. The regime clearly uses that strategy in a number of demonstrations before and after 2003 including in Depeyin where Daw Ang San Suu Kyi and motorcades were ambushed by the authorization of the regime.

Killing innocent students in 1988 put the regime into the wrong path. Worse than this dictators Than Shwe perpetrated killing peaceful Buddhist monks where Buddhism is devoted by majority of people in Burma. Those acts clearly indicate the regime wouldn’t go down the road that might lead to losing the grip on power.

The erroneous notion that adheres deep inside dictators’ mind is that they will be put on trial once they reform Burma into genuine democratic state with appropriate dialogues and ending more than half century long civil war in Burma. Besides the supporters of the regime and its cronies are inseparable from main dictators, which are not to be prosecuted by public.

With regular way of clinging onto the power, the dictators pretend they are doing the right things for the country. In reverse, the regime would like the whole world to see oppositions as destructive elements.

Long prison sentences to 88 students’ leaders mean “NO” to real change in Burma. This is the gesture of coward way by Burmese military dictators to response to the people and international. Coward dictators say nothing officially so that they can steer any direction on any occasion.

In May 2008, the dictators proved their carelessness to Burmese people when cyclone Nargis hit the Irrawaddy delta and southern Rangoon where nearly 140,000 people died and 2.4 million were severely affected. The dictators neglected people’s suffering and ordered to go ahead constitutional referendum because the constitution is the backbone to officially exit military dominated system in Burma.

The look and facade of parliament in Burma is like the style of real democratic state around the world. But legislation is incapable except existing constitution which totally allows existence of totalitarian system.

Without realistic, so called president who has not been elected by the people and advisory board to the president proclaim win-win situation will be erected between oppositions and dictators. But, it can be seen that president hasn’t got appropriate authorization to make change as well as the recommendations of advisory board to the president have not been implemented.

(2) Understanding regime’s short term objectives

As a Burmese, we have experienced in Burmese politics for decades that dictators will cling onto power as long as they can. On the other hand, they must not give up the power not only for themselves but also for their families and cronies because the dictators are lacking confidence on the forgiveness that oppositions offer. Dictators daren’t to deal with after effects that they will encounter if genuine civil government is taken place.

Therefore any kinds of political system that may lead their wrong doings are stripped out for punishment will not be allowed in Burma. So their duty is to generate dictatorial system with different layout. So the regime is right if we look at situations from their point of view.

Consequently, dictators’ long term objective will be to get hold of control over governmental sectors. They understand their duty and they are dutiful on what they have to do.

Examining dictators’ short term objectives can also be witnessed that they are about to get what they want by their regular way of trick to Burmese people and international community.

Two short term objectives dictators are trying to achieve are to clear out economic sanctions on Burma and to take ASEAN chair on 2014.

Whether a small scale of economic sanction on Burma, the regime finds difficulty to control Burmese economy with the way they want as long as sanctions exist. As there are fewer modes left to monopolize domestic economy, dictators are looking broader marketplaces which are obviously not for Burmese people.

The struggle of Burmese people for the living is getting harder after decades of military rules. Simple aim for sanctions to be lifted is a part of keeping dictatorial system in Burma. Dictators have a certain amount of circle of cronies and families that profit from the system. The dictators keep receiving advantages and souvenir from those cronies. In favour of such kind of sphere to regulate in sequence, corruption has to exist in Burma.

Another thing which will make dictators achieve credibility among international arena is to be chair of the ASEAN on 2014. The regime has not come across significant pressure by the ASEAN toward meaningful alteration in Burma. The ASEAN keeps ignore what is really happening in Burma by starting with “constructive engagement” policy and last year it recognized 2010 elections in Burma. At the moment, the ASEAN chair position in 2014 is more than ready to be granted to the regime by the ASEAN.

In order to kill two birds with one stone, the dictators have to make one big effort which is to get on with the United States of America. The regime recognizes that the United States play a key role in international community such as sanctions and preventing nuclear smuggling etc. As ASEAN Chair, a smooth communication with the United States is needed prior to US-ASEAN summit.

Deformed dictators have been trying to accomplish any necessity to keep the regime energetic. The process of visit by US special envoy to Burma was speedy and regimented because regime understand that this has to be done in time. In the same way, representative from the regime went to the Whitehouse in Washington and exchange talk with US officials for further friendliness.

The two main objectives which are to clear out sanctions on Burma and ASEAN chair in 2014 is achievable if opposition are just watching the situation instead of working hard with systematic endeavour. Some inconsequential continuation movement by opposition inside Burma can be found within a small number of NLD member led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. The NLD was inactive when Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was in detention. But now NLD is dancing along with the melody that regime create where opposition can make regime dance.

In overseas oppositions, everyone is working hard to see changes in Burma for decades. Practically, such a fruitful situation can’t be seen in Burma because appropriate accomplishment has not been made to reach specific goal. Unspeakably more Burmese opposition are turning into onlookers or hypocrites where it is hard to find the way to demolish dictators in Burma.

There is a remarkable saying in Burmese, “IT IS NOT CHEATER’S FAULT IF SOMEONE HAS BEEN CHEATED FOR THREE TIMES”.

Burma Freedom: STILL FAR AWAY TO DEMOCRATIC BURMA

Burma Freedom: STILL FAR AWAY TO DEMOCRATIC BURMA

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As we all know, our democratic struggle has been 23 years from 1988 and 49 years (nearly 5 decades or half century) from 1962. Reasonably over two decades is enough to make significant change. But the only obvious thing happens in Burma is the grip of dictators and its cronies to control everything become firmer and stronger. It means our opposition is not in the satisfactory stage unless we create powerful push. But some people might say the situation in Burma has escalated somehow to favourable circumstance that we would like to achieve. But it is not. If we look at the situation from real point of view, we will see truthful situation.

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To find out whether we have winning situation or weakening situation, look at following facts.

- Even though we opposition won majority in 1990 election, we could not implement democratic government. Election results now are out of sight even though we claim that it still exists.

- Oppositions have been helplessly assaulted by thugs of dictators as in 2003 depeyin massacre. It is the same kind of killing the people like shooting in demonstrations in 1988, 2007.

- The problem of depeyin is unsolved, not even COI.

- Students’ leaders were rearrested and sentenced to long prison terms in 2008.

- Cyclone Nargis in 2008, the carelessness of dictators to the people was seen as the worst Burmese villain in the entire world.

- While we have been objecting and suggesting, 2008 constitution was forcibly made out into exploit and unlawfully.

- Full of unfairness or historical bullying could be seen in 2010 elections.

- Than Shwe has gone into hiding and the same practices and procedures are still in use.

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Well, if you look at above things, it shows that everything the dictators want to happen come to happen. Most of our opposition want to happen are not likely to happen. It’s more like it will never happen. For example, to recognize 1990 election results, add and remove of 2008 constitution, free and fair 2010 elections, dialogue with NLD led by Daw Suu and tripartite dialogue. Those things aren’t happened because the way the whole oppositions work is just hypocrisy.

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Noticeably, the whole opposition has not been able to work together though we know that we need to stick and work as one. We have had chances and occasions that we can get through political deadlock in Burma. But we could not grab those opportunities. And the whole opposition is working the same procedures and the same things that we have been doing since we started our struggle. We are not doing not many different things. Everyone knows what Burmese people do for freedom and democracy in Burma. For example, demonstrations, signature campaigns, asking UN for bla bla bla and asking EU for bla bla bla. In reality, none of these are the main mode that we all must do to achieve our goal of democracy. They are just side action we have to do along with the main mode. So, we will not be heading to democratic Burma as long as we are not in the right track. Have you ever though that what we have been doing so far is not even something that makes dissipate the existence of military dictators in Burma.

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At the same time, we seem unaware that the dictators are also making their effort not to lose the power as well as not to be sent to the court for their committed crimes. That is why we are seeing the dictators are still clinging onto power. If you look at international arena, the UNSC and the UN can’t do more than what they have been doing because of using abusive veto power by China and Russia. The ASEAN will never push dictators to the way the people want but to recognize whatever the dictators do. The EU’s policy towards Burma is softening though they extend their sanctions on Burma. They are looking more investment in Burma. India used to show their support to oppositions.

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But now India is doing more investments in Burma to compete with China. Thailand is planning to send refugee in the border and Thai authorities want to have stronger tie with Burma in security and economy. So, these all indication shows that dictators have necessary control to stay in power. In my point of view circumstances in Burma are in favour of dictators and their followers, is because of lack of endeavour by the whole opposition. Our opposition work very few amount of work with unmethodical way while dictators work full time with systematic effort. In the long term, existing circumstances show that our oppositions need to work very very hard with organized and harmonized way.

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The same old routines for Burma’s freedom

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Let's look at opposition organizations in overseas. The first thing people attach the wrong attitude is about “the people inside Burma can only make change the situation in Burma. The people outside the country can’t do for significant change.” I would say this is very wrong ideology.

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Possible way that can occur something change in Burma is by three forces. They are people and organizations inside Burma, people and organizations in the border and people and organizations from over sea countries. If these three forces act as one on specific and prioritized objective with allocated responsibility, this is the time that we can count down for freedom from oppressions by inhumane dictators. Otherwise whatever an organization or someone do something, it is going to be like a drop of water into the sea of sands. That is why we can prove that current situation in Burma is not in favor to our oppositions. Dictators’ grip on power is stronger and stronger.

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If we look at the escalation of military regime, it indicates they don’t need to worry about loosing the power after transforming military rules into civilian control. Even though fraudulent process and obvious ways of cheating are clear to ratify in 2010 elections, we oppositions are unable to send conspirators to the justice. Not recognizing 1990 elections results and no transfer of power, unethical and cheating on unnecessary 2008 constitution and continuing puppet government resulted from sham 2010 elections are not just occasional method. These processes have been used by dictators since after military coup in 1962. The fact is that dictators are trying as much as they can to maintain the power like we are struggling for democracy.

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They will not easily give up where they have to take into account with the safety and security of their family, their relatives and their business partners. As long as we oppositions are unable to reach the same level that can manipulate current situation, dictators will not consider entering to dialogue or any kind of negotiation. To manipulate current situation, oppositions need too many kind of renovation such as all opposition work as one or implementation on a set of main objectives of all of us, which is not someone’s wishful thinking.

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The UN, EU, ASEAN and international governments are unable to interfere in problems in Burma without seeing unified and powerful arrangement in opposition side.

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Working together on the same objectives and to start working collectively is always the first thing. And there is a specific way and mean that we must accept for the sake of freedom in Burma unless otherwise you do not want to get on with it. Although demonstrations, signature campaigns, giving pressure to the UN, EU, ASEAN and international governments are needed to include in new way of working for democracy, they should not be first priority in our work of daily basis for freedom in Burma.

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Solutions

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The specific way and mean that we must work for real change in Burma is something like a systematic way which we will see improvement if we work hard and we will be in the same situation if we work as the same old routines. In the specific way, everyone work for the same objectives + the core financial sector must be formed. At the same time, everyone must contribute exact hours of work for the struggle in daily basis. For example, someone has to give 1-2 hours (at least) work for the struggle daily while he/she is working full time. For the people who are in revolutionary organizations as in border, they have to work full time on our main objectives by all of us which is not on the objectives of their own.